Trading ideas as of April 20, 2014 are pretty “energetic” as it were $XLE

Weekly charts, looking at prices and volume. A list of suggested ideas that leans very heavily towards energy this week, which could be “late stage” for longs. No matter what, it’s about price, risk management and keeping it easy.

AEP_042014

suggested initial stop 48.4

BHI_042014

suggested initial stop 62.2

HES_042014

suggested initial stop 80.7

NBR_042014

suggested initial stop 22

NRG_042014

suggested initial stop 29.9

SLB_42014

suggested initial stop 92.5

SPN_042014

suggested initial stop 27.80

TSM_042014

suggested initial stop

UPL_042014

suggested initial stop 25.4

WEC_042014

suggested initial stop 44.8

WFT_042014

suggested initial stop 16.2

XLE_042014

suggested initial stop 87.9

XLU_042014

suggested initial stop 40.2

XOP_042014

suggested initial stop 70.8

The Need for Speed: Trains, Planes and (electric) automobiles (and…)

What can we look forward to when the post 2000-secular bear is over and some big bull market of the 2020s could be long in the tooth? This is a quick post relating to boom, bust and our desire to travel faster and farther.

On July 4, 1828, the last surviving signer of the Declaration of Independence, Charles Carroll, at age 91, would be at the shovel opening ceremony for the first railroad chartered in the still New New thing known as the United States. The Baltimore & Ohio Railroad raised $4 million dollars(!) in 12 days and would also become the first railroad company to transition from horses to steam-powered locomotion with a train called the “Tom Thumb”. (You can also thank Tom Thumb inventor Peter Cooper everytime you have Jell-O, he got the first patent for gelatin.)

cooper_tom_thumb

B&O Railroad stock certificate 12 d to raise 4M

The new new tech of railroads would face opposition by wagon and canal operators, by threatened merchants, and by clergy claiming man was not meant to travel at such great speed, but it was only a matter of time before the need for speed would attract more capital.

Canal companies could not hope to compete against transport technology that didn’t rely upon waterways and good weather, and eventually trains became an accepted part of history. (In 1831, one rail company called Mohawk & Hudson, reduced what would have been a day long canal trek to one hour by rail.)

First there would be the effusive investment acceptance and commensurate pricing of this hot new new transport thing, extreme optimism, the willingness to pay a premium for the future, drawing more capital but also late “adopters”, followed by disillusionment and busts. Despite the early busts of the 1800s, trains were not derailed and we continue to rely upon them in the 21st century.

us-railroad-stock-prices_1865_1895

You can still invest in B&O Railroad today, via it’s merger descendant CSX.

rail merger chart as of 070707

In 1927, Charles Lindbergh, helped to trigger the next big transportation investment boom, in wake of the 1926 Air Commerce Act. (Lindbergh’s future father-in-law, J.P. Morgan partner Dwight Morrow was recruited by President Coolidge to chair a board that developed the beginning of Federal aviation policies leading to the 1926 Act.) Lindbergh’s landing of the “Spirit of St. Louis” in Paris would open the floodgates of investment and public enthusiasm for aviation. The 1928 Aircraft Year Book noted “money, everywhere, seemed available for aviation…” to the tune of $1B USD during the 20 months that followed Lindbergh’s success, resulting in a 1929 $1B USD aviation industry valuation versus 90M USD in actual earnings.

unitedairlinestransportvig

During those early years, even with the public embrace of commercial aviation, it was seen as a mere complement to the “old” standby, railroads, by then a very mature industry, having gone through several boom bust and innovation cycles. In fact, here’s a 1927 stamp commemorating the old “B&O”, celebrating its centenary.

BOstamp1927 125 years commemorative

(We won’t get into happened in 1929. Anyone remotely interested in this post knows what followed, but airlines and aircraft were here to stay.)

unitedairlinestransportvig

So, here we are, almost 100 years after Lindbergh.

This post was inspired by the past year’s stock market and public awareness that an automobile unicorn, the electric car, could become a mainstream transportation technology and eclipse a century of petroleum powered vehicles. At this point, just about everyone knows about Elon Musk assuming leadership at Tesla, which has invited other automakers to push forward with more “hybrid” offerings. Tesla’s stock price has raced from post-IPO disappointment to great enthusiasm to some disappointment yet again.

TSLA

So, no matter what happens to TSLA shares, the electric battery platform looks very promising, just as trains, planes (and hydrocarbon powered) automobiles became a part of daily economic life.

You know what I’m suggesting. We already can invest in the prospect of a century of automobiles that will be powered by electricity, which might even drive themselves, powering our homes when they’re parked in the driveway/garage (charged by panels we might have bought or leased from another Musk-associated enterprise, Solar City but that’s a separate post, watch out utility companies.)

What can we hope to expect circa 2027 from either Elon Musk or someone else like him? Shall we celebrate the Lindbergh Landing Centenary and invest in an IPO of SpaceX?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Thumb_(locomotive)

http://www.ushistory.org/us/

http://www.century-of-flight.net/index.htm

http://generalaviationnews.com

http://inventors.about.com/library/inventors/bl_tom_thumb.htm

Steampunk HFT circa 1869/70: Edison and the quadruplex

Quadruplex Telegraph Rutgers University

(Photo credit: Rutgers University http://edison.rutgers.edu/index.htm )

Not quite 150 years before High Frequency Trading has become the bugaboo beast, dominating markets with enormous (if at times tenuous) order volume in exchange for order flow revenue for the financial exchanges, there was a dramatic technological leap of a greater order of magnitude, courtesy of Thomas Edison, which upended the “old order” on the stock market.

Some years before inventing inventions including the electric incandescent light bulb, the phonograph, and the electric grid, Edison, arrived in New York from Boston, an itinerant seasoned telegrapher. He also turned out to be the only person capable of repairing a telegraph machine at Law’s Gold & Stock Reporting company, one of the predecssors to Western Union. Hired as a supervisor, Edison would develop the quadruplex, which boosted the telegraph’s signal carrying capacity. The markets would move even further from its buttonwood tree roots, soon after Edison’s arrival in New York.

The NYSE during that time soon transitioned from its TWICE A DAY human auction towards the familiar sight of daily trading during the decade, thanks in part to Edison’s several telegraph innovations, preceding the light bulb’s debut in 1879.

The Million Dollar Homepage still exists, but 22% of it has rotted away

Originally posted on Quartz:

Pixels closer to the top and left sold first

Pixels closer to the top and left sold first

Before Kickstarter and Indiegogo made crowdfunding projects simple for everyone, Alex Tew financed his college education by selling 10-by-10 pixel chunks of a webpage for $100 each. The Million Dollar Homepage became a viral sensation and sold out in 138 days.

Eight years later, the site still exists, essentially frozen in time. That provides an interesting window into the phenomenon of “link rot,” or hyperlinks that used to work but now point to dead pages. Our analysis found that 22% of the Million Dollar Homepage’s pixels now fail to load a webpage when clicked.

In the GIF below, the pink areas are now dead:

gmh_grid_600

These non-functioning links account for 221,900 of the million pixels—$221,900 worth of real estate, assuming the pixels have kept their value in the last eight years.

The atrophy of links has been shown to stabilize…

View original 276 more words

the beginning of the end of “T.M.I.” and “oversharing”? :)

from Amber Mac, Fast Company, “Social Media’s Next Act: Disappearing, Private, Secret-Filled Networks” (via mattcreem):

http://www.fastcompany.com/3027924/dialed/social-medias-next-act-disappearing-private-secret-filled-networks

“…Secret-filled networks do feel a bit (well, a lot) childish, but what they do enforce is the reality that there are plenty of users who want to stay anonymous online…”

A social pendulum swing from “TMI” towards exclusivity, curated networks as opposed to just edited content, might be a natural countermovement to social oversharing. The new “vaporware” might be just that, given current ephermal pic sharing mobile apps like Snapchat. Attention “KimYe”s of the world, please take heed. :)

This in not your father’s, grandfather’s or great-grandfather’s “OLD”-mobile.

This in not your father’s, grandfather’s or great-grandfather’s “OLD”-mobile.

In summary, my thoughts:

Elon Musk is changing how autos are powered, sold and made. It’s becoming more and more automated. Machines making machines, repaired by machines most likely soon enough.

Millennials are not buying. A mobile/cloud monthly identity bill can cost the same as a car.

More cars will be driving themselves, so we may need fewer of them.
(the Atlantic talks about the demand impact of automated cars)

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2014/03/if-cars-really-could-drive-themselves-how-many-would-we-need/284549/

(the Atlantic piece sources a Singapore study via Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Dept. of Aeronautics and Astronautics; Singapore-MIT Alliance for Research and Technology Center.)
“Using actual transportation data, our analysis suggests a shared-vehicle mobility solution can meet the personal mobility needs of the entire population with a fleet whose size is approximately 1/3 of the total number of passenger vehicles currently in operation.”

http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/82904

Cars are less about “vroom vroom” internal combustion culture, and may become “batteries” for our homes, so our vanity outlets may be through other venues.