$EURUSD $FXE $6E_F has been a “sell” / “short” for the past month. The suggested stop loss is about 2 cents, depending on the instrument, pretty hefty for those in the FX trading world, but my risk size (and leverage) would be considerably smaller.
$AAPL $QQQ $FB $GILD $TSLA $FXI $FDO $DIS $CELG $HPQ $QIHU $CAM $PEP $BITA $HCA $EMC $LYB $AMT $RIO $X $BRCM
The market has presented all kinds of “long” ideas, in a variety of industries, classes. The above list is just a sampling of the ones that made it for review tonight on a rolling weekly price action review. I can’t call tops or bottoms, and it would be too stressful to make the “call”. I have read recent postings RE: Shiller/CAPE, Gundlach, Chanos in addition to price following systemic/rules based traders. All you can do is focus on risk management, so that WHEN the turn does come, you’re able to keep most of your “chips” and play the new short/sell trend (or at least sit it out, like one of Jesse Livermore’s inspirations, at some mountainside retreat or other tranquil/fun setting).
A new segment post, for futures contracts, with suggested charts and potential stop loss prices.
10 year treasuries continue to be a long, “softs” are long, grains just keep getting lower. I don’t know where the turn is in rates. I can’t do bottoms or top calls either in softs or grains, but I can calculate stops and suggested them as “food for thought” (pardon the pun).
Weekly Chart, 8/15/14 close 126-17, suggested stop loss 124-15.
Weekly Chart, 8/15/14 close 1048-4, suggested stop loss 1131
Weekly Chart, 8/15/14 close 376-6, suggested stop loss 410-4
Weekly Chart, 8/15/14 close 3243, suggested stop loss 3097
Weekly Chart, 08/15/14 close 193+, suggested stop loss 163+
Long trade ideas to consider for the week beginning Monday, 8/17/2014. Lots of things happening, but this is a sample of weekly charts, with favorable “up” trend elements. What I have observed is tentative ebullience, and the emergence of tech, china, emerging markets and cyclical/industrial recovery plays. It’s tempered by price action ex-U.S. markets indicating lots of worry and forward projections of a decidedly “deflationary” nature (hello Europe, Putin and Busted-Abenomics).
Suggested stop loss points are offered. Price targets are a rarity on this site, as I tend to focus on studying price and then estimating possible stop loss points to come up with the cost of risk for a trade.
These are NOT intended to be a list of “favorite” trades as of this moment. Every week, I focus on what has happened as of the week ending each “friday”, and look at trend indicators related to price and volume. All traders have a systems and perspective unique to their needs and objectives.
$AMGN 132.8 with a stop loss of 121.8
$AMT 98.2 with a stop loss of 92.4
$BITA 78.3 with a stop loss of 66
$CHL 59.9 with a stop loss of 56.5
$CYH 51 with a stop loss of 44.5
$EXPE 85.4 with a stop loss of 77.5
$GCI 34.6 with a stop loss of 31.3
$GILD 99.5 with a stop loss of 92.1
$HCA 67.7 with a stop loss of 60.9
$JBLU 11.9 with a stop loss of 10.5
$LYB 110.6 with a stop loss of 103
$RHT 59.8 with a stop loss of 56.3
$RSG 39 with a stop loss of 37.3
$SCI 21.9 with a stop loss of 20.7
$SWKS 54.4 with a stop loss of 49.2
$TQNT 18.9 with a stop loss of 16.3
$TSLA 262 with a stop loss of 231.8
A selection of some of this week’s “long” ideas in 60 seconds.
I’ve been reading a lot of “do or die” market chart commentary. I can see the pros and cons of both sides of the current debate, but in a way, it’s noise. No one really knows. All that is observable is price and if there is a chronologically sequential rate of change in price. The below charts presented are weekly price bars. The best macro commentary I’m reading comes from @MercenaryJack and there are other great observers including @RyanDetrick who can break down the historical price data, and no one is 100% certain but they have made great observations for me to be mindful of. I can take any of these ideas and reduce it to a calculable dollar risk per trade. That I can be certain of and “control” to some extent. It’s a starting point and it’s part of a process. Please take a look at the charts below as part of your starting point too.
The back drop: The market averages have most indices falling to longer time frame trend lines going back to 2008/9 or ready to test 50, 100 and 200 day averages. As usual, everyone is on the fence, lots of fingers pointing at les crises du jour (plural is intended) but still hoping for the post oversold bounce. Meantime, long dated treasuries keep on chugging upwards, despite the “reality” of living in a post-QE age everyone (sans the actual rate hike yet to come), emerging markets have make a comeback, and so have certain high growth issues. Precious metals may regain their luster, on a near-term 30 day basis which makes me think about comments from Paul Singer about gold. Gundlach, my go-to for bonds, is all about long-dated US treasuries, dollar denominated emerging markets debt and going short homebuilders. Just a decade ago we were under threat of McMansions and now it’s all about the micro-apartment and hotels. (By the time there’s a micro flat ETF, it should be time to go “huge” again.)
Below are charts from this week’s weekly filters, with suggested stops. Frankly, the sells and shorts are piling up but some of them have terrible risk/reward prospects. If a trader insists on trading, and shorting falling long knives, then small trading sizes are for the best. This post includes only those with elevated trading volumes.
suggested stop loss: 92.4
suggested stop loss: 52.6
suggested stop loss: 101.8
suggested stop loss: 30.4
sell/short, suggested stop loss: 22.6
sell/short, suggested stop loss: 12
sell/short, suggested stop loss: 50.3
sell/short, suggested stop loss: 25.7
sell/short, suggested stop loss: 31.6
sell/short, suggested stop loss: 15.1
There are NOT a lot of longs here. In fact my “favorite”, has already been highlighted by twitter and stocktwit traders @JBoorman and @theturtlefollower (two must follows and very nice guys), that idea being Expedia, $EXPE.
Price tells the tale. Do we listen to not just the notes of individual ideas, to the arrangement of varied sector activity, but to the entire symphony? A random thought I throw in here.
Below are the “winners”, the few longs that made it, with daily, weekly price action and elevated trading volumes. I include with the charts, some suggested stop loss points, for what it’s worth. I have multiple systems, but this one is clean and I feel comfortable posting it. The Risk/reward on these stops vary, but experience has taught me that these stops are workable for the longer time frame/smaller trading size approach.
As an aside, I don’t do price targets. Prediction is difficult, to put it mildly, and I know I’m not good at it, but I can at least help suggest some points to “cry uncle” and move on if any of these ideas are opened at the beginning of the week associated with a post.
Suggested stop loss: 17.45
Suggested stop loss: 77
Suggested stop loss: 24
Suggested stop loss: 8.4
Suggested stop loss: 15.4
This post feels so redundant, after the past week’s market declines, but it’s always good to run through the weekly routine of finding ideas which satisfy the weekly and daily price trend rules, along with elevated trading volume. Below is a ticker from the past, Deutsche Bank $DB , a great example that the old trading phrase about falling knives still is helpful.
Suggested stop loss: 36.9
Suggested stop loss: 22.5
Suggested stop loss: 16.2
Suggested stop loss: 14.1