Month: August 2012

10 TBF banks, control 75+% of financial assets and are $50B USD short of Basel 3

Today a mere 10 too-big-to-fail financial institutions are responsible for three quarters of total financial assets under management in the United States. Yet the country’s largest banks are at least $50 billion short of meeting new capital requirements under the new “Basel III” accords governing bank capital adequacy. – Niall Ferguson



‘It’s said with a whisper and not with a shout…” Low trade volume and the wall of worry may not lead to a rout. $SPY $ES_F $ZB_F $ZN_F

Regarding the recent concern over low trading volumes and the known dangers in the global economy (you already know or have been told about all of them): ‘It’s said with a whisper and not with a shout, when the widows and orphans get in, it’s time to get out.” There is a wisp of something happening, something unexpected. Something spirited.

Right now, the grinding summer market with its slackened pace may turn into a much more furious fall trading season. As it stands, all that has been talked about has been priced in, baked in, hedged against and relied upon, except for some serious worry wall climbing by a market ready for some parkour. The one UN-discounted-for scenario could very well be a return of animal spirits for a few weeks, but this is just a notion.

For me, it comes down to prices and where they go. My predictive abilities could be pitted against yours, and neither of us would fare much better than the other over a long enough time line, and to probably self-destructive effect with a bit of leverage. Best to wait and see and trade accordingly. Right now trends are higher equities and sovereign bond yields, over the past few sessions so let’s see where it goes and how long.

Trading wisdom from The Untouchables: “Just watch what does happen.”

“This is the job. Don’t wait for it to happen. Don’t even want it to happen. Just watch what does happen.” (Sean Connery’s character, Jim Malone, a veteran police officer, trying to impart hard earned wisdom to young guns chasing after Al Capone, played by Robert DeNiro.)

Assorted grains (futures) growing again $ZC_F $ZM_F $ZW_F with 2013 basis

Charts of the latest “hits” in forex futures $AUDUSD $AUDJPY $EURJPY etc

A variety of currency breakouts, all pointing to “it’s on” again (at least until some policy maker/official decides to say something). $AUDJPY $AUDUSD $AUDCAD $EURJPY $NZDUSD $MXPUSD

Is natural gas bubbling up (for now)? $NG_F

Natural Gas futures, February 2013 basis (January 2013 expiration)

Grains gradually getting ground up? (starting first with Author’s portfolios) $ZC_F $ZW_F $ZS_F

Wheat futures, December 2012 basisSoy futures, November 2012 basisCorn futures, December 2012 basis