Regarding the recent concern over low trading volumes and the known dangers in the global economy (you already know or have been told about all of them): ‘It’s said with a whisper and not with a shout, when the widows and orphans get in, it’s time to get out.” There is a wisp of something happening, something unexpected. Something spirited.
Right now, the grinding summer market with its slackened pace may turn into a much more furious fall trading season. As it stands, all that has been talked about has been priced in, baked in, hedged against and relied upon, except for some serious worry wall climbing by a market ready for some parkour. The one UN-discounted-for scenario could very well be a return of animal spirits for a few weeks, but this is just a notion.
For me, it comes down to prices and where they go. My predictive abilities could be pitted against yours, and neither of us would fare much better than the other over a long enough time line, and to probably self-destructive effect with a bit of leverage. Best to wait and see and trade accordingly. Right now trends are higher equities and sovereign bond yields, over the past few sessions so let’s see where it goes and how long.