Month: October 2012

Interesting Price Breakouts as of October 25, 2012: including $WYNN and Hang Seng Index

As Nasdaq and “growthy” IBD leader plays continue to break down, there are other, new leaders emerging.

$AET  $GRA $MYL $WYNN (and it should be no surprise, the Hang Seng Index)

 

 

 

 

 

A sell breakout, that is more like a BREAKDOWN, joining a growing list of major market clearing FAILS. (Random thought: there’s bound to be a disaster again when you combine reawakened dark animal spirits of fear with HFT algo price quote machine gunning silliness). The list of “fails” is growing, and the timing couldn’t be worse, given the tax break expiration and year end book cleaning.  Ah well, clear things up and start fresh in 2013. 🙂

$SPR

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Flowers for $ALGN (Interesting Price Breakouts as of October 24, 2012)

The market continues to sell-off. Some talk about breakouts, cross-overs and magic numbers. Knife catchers galore out there, complacent, and competing for time suck share with gloom and doomers. In the middle, you’ll find the trader, who goes off price, volume and risk rules. $WHR and $CL_F were featured the other day, now we have more tickers to look at. Actually, when it comes to ticker suggestions,

Jesse Livermore said it best, “I never hesitate to tell a man that I am bullish or bearish. But I do not tell people to buy or sell any particular stock. In a bear market all stocks go down and in a bull market they go up.”

Right now, the break-downs and hard sell-offs of many favored “leader” stocks has taken place already. $ALGN below is the latest member of the broken up-trend club.

I’ve chosen a few charts, and haven’t present for all tickers in this post. I wanted to show the violent breaks that are taking place, and there might be more to come, as traders and funds rush to exit, either to follow suit, avoid the tax hit that’s anticipated in 2013 as tax cuts expire or close up books without pigs for institutional window-dressing.

Breakdowns:

$ALGN $AMZN $AXP $BBBY $EMC $FXC $FFIV $GPC $HMSY $NTAP $PKX $QCOM $SBH

$AMZN

$CL_F $NQ_F

We’ve already seen crude drop, and that seems to be continuing.

 

A longer term view of $NQ_F. We’ll see if this recent break means something.

Everyone watches moving average crossovers, and this one is hugging the 50 day, so the jury is out. I can’t make judgements and predictions.

 

Breakouts (not breakups 🙂  )

$HOV $KFT $WHR ($KFT is no surprise and neither is $WHR)

Homebuilders have been enjoying a 6+ month ride up, and are getting noticed by the remnants of the retail trade as the market is reporting some improvement in sales, resales and starts. “Cup and Handle” traders, I couldn’t help but notice a possible 4 months cup earlier this year, followed by a nifty handle, and $3.25 as nice trailing “high” to enter $HOV. Other shares in this space had similar rewarding opportunities as well as mortgage related companies. That being said, don’t be stupid and go hog wild, at least without some risk controls.

Interesting Price breakout as of October 23, 2012: $WHR continues to rise but $CL_F drips down

In a field of declining shares and new sell signals for the Nasdaq and crude oil, there was one that stood out: $WHR

Prices are swirling down for many investments, except for one of America’s domestic icon brands, I spitball that it’s about a recovery in home building and renovation, but really for me it’s about price.

On the flip side, crude oil continues it’s decline:

A trailing 30 days (as of Oct 19, 2012) look at Gundlach’s Nat Gas vs. $AAPL pair trade (NG basis: Jan 2013 contract)(Source: Bigcharts.com)

Interesting Price Charts as of October 16, 2012 $FXE $6S_F and more

Random note: Lots of breakouts but also sell-offs following share prices which rose on tepid volume. And yet there are many things to look at. A few below:

$6E_F $FXE $EURUSD

$6S_F $FXF $USDCHF

$ZW_F $WEAT Wheat

$ZM_F $SOYB (No soybean meal ETF, but look at soy as well Soybean Meal

$NGLS (Natgas has been booming again, in the face of declining drill rig count and increased demand, so Targas shares appear to benefit as well.)

$NOC (This has been doing well, despite talk of defense spending cutbacks.)

$NVO (So many Pharma plays have done well, and this has been a slow steady uptrend.)

$WYNN (The great global casino continues, so why not Wynn Resorts as well?)

Interesting price charts as of October 10, 2012 including $WMT up $BIDU $MSFT down …

The sell-off continues, more sells than buys, more downward breakouts than up. We follow price, and are aware of traders watching for consolidation/basing as sell wash through, but guys like Michael Belkin observe that could be it for earnings increase trends.

Longs:

A few large-cap “value” plays.

$WMT (resumption of rise going back to May 2012)

$KFT

$DVA (going all the way back to June 2012)

SELLS:

$BIDU (a “fresh” one that continues a decline that was interrupted July 2012)

$CMI (also resumption of another decline that was interrupted July 2012) Watch out of $85+ or so, after dropping from trailing 12 month high and then bouncing 50% during the summer before resuming its fall.

$MOS

$MSFT (part of a tech/dow downward breakout)

$OXY (resumption of decline that was interrupted May 2012) (Note: how many issues dropped and then bounced up to 50 percent from a recent low.)

$RDC (resumption of decline that was interrupted July 2012)

$TM

Interesting price breakouts as of October 9, 2012 $study

The market has a lot of selling and I’ve noticed in the brief survey of IBD trading picks, a tendency towards longs falling back to 10 week price averages and/or failure of buy entries or breakouts with tepid volume.

SELLS that popped up:

$CTXS $DLTR $HPQ (that’s been going on for a while) $INTC

LONGS that popped up:

$ABV $CVH

Reminiscences Post: You may find many people…who are bullish (just) because they have stocks

When I am long stocks it is because my reading of conditions has made me bullish.  But you may find many people, reputed to be intelligent, who are bullish because they have stocks. I do NOT allow my possessions – or my prepossessions either – do any thinking for me.  That is why I repeat that I never argue with the tape. To be angry at the market because it unexpectedly or even illogically goes against you is like getting mad at your lungs because you have pneumonia. – Reminiscences of a Stock Operator (Edwin Lefevre)

Lots of Longs as of October 4, 2012 $SPY $EWH aka Hang Seng Index

While past Octobers to the trader are scary, the breakouts keep coming, so let’s be sensible and on our guard as usual.

Through a homegrown screen, the Hang Sang Index pops up, and I credit the Mercenary Traders for giving me this “risk on/up” flag.

In summary, a list, in declining volume, but not reflecting the market cap aspect, just their respective trading volumes

At 10M+ shares:

$GE $C $PE $KFT $CX $JPM $T $KGC $VZ $TSM $HCBK $LOW

runners up:

$CMCSA $KBH $MRK $IAU $LEN $IP $MUR $XLV $GLD $ESRX

third place:

$ESRX $COF $EWH $EPI $RVBD $EWW $V $SWN $MYL $MMM $TWC $GOOG $CELG $AKAM $VRSN $IBN $MHP $GSK $IRM $CVH $ABV $RAX $MA $SHW $AIZ $YT $DVA $AEM $REGN

Honorable mentions at above 250K shares traded:

$BG $WPI $BEN $FMX $MDC $IBB $EW $PNRA

1983 Steve Jobs speech envisions iPad /App Store $AAPL at Aspen International Design Conference

[youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hj4bXTETKgs]

Steve Jobs talk at 1983 Aspen International Design Conference

Steve Jobs was ahead by 20+ years but he got it done.