The objective this year is frankly to do “less” but achieve more. Attending to the gyrations and noise during the second half of 2012 has taken their toll, and I am the chief architect behind my results, which have been subpar, in what has been a volatile period punctuated with some promising trends, in homebuilding shares, finance, some tech, and within the futures arena, great trends have emerged within softs, the Japanese Yen and grains. Right now, we’ve had a handful of great ideas that I have not maximized, with too much spread out over to many priorities. Not again. 🙂
We begin the year with shorts in the Japanese Yen and Corn, which are worrisome for their violent success to the downside, and could prove painful during a profit taking/ “consolidation” period. HOWEVER, my reading of other traders (twitter handles include: MarzBonfire, traderfoxxx, peterlbrandt and johnfmauldin) ALL point, despite their different approaches to a secular trend driven by politics and the reality that the Japanese national balance sheet has come to a reckoning. The price action has been short Yen against anything else, and long the TOPIX and NIKKEI. We will see how far we get past this first inning, or if that was it.
Going forward, a nascent rise in Bank of America, past the $10 per share mark, could prove to be in early days, with more to come, as I see an argument for a fragile continued recovery for the U.S. economy. So an eye on financials in 2013 could prove as fruitful as homebuilders were in 2012. It all depends if we can stumble forward, “cliff” or no “cliff” which has technically come due as of this writing, this evening, Tuesday, January 1, 2013.
Conversely, another “BIG TRADE” for 2013 could include something Ray Dalio, of Bridgewater Associates fame and success, hinted at, that the vaunted US Treasury bond bull could finally come to a turning point. We’ll see, that’s really a multi-year turn.
Next up, the emerging markets, with China in focus, could prove to offer at a minimum a robust bounce for speculators. Without resort to the Shanghai Composite, traders may lean heavily upon instruments like FXI, perhaps the Hang Seng Index and I include the possibility in investing in the largest energy enterprises for the more “risk” (or volatility) tolerant speculator.
Other big picture ideas which are NOT really for trading, include my continued interest in energy and in places like Mongolia, with its nascent wealthy and rising standards of living.