Month: March 2014

Ideas as of March 29, 2014 $RF $RFMD $BAC $EMC $AMAT $TXN $BBT

Very sanguine, but here are charts under review, presented without too much comment.

TXN_032914

initial stop loss: 43.00

BBT_032914

initial stop loss: 38.10

amat_032914

initial stop loss: 18.20

emc_032914

initial stop loss: 25.3

BAC_032914

initial stop loss: 15.40

RFMD_032914

initial stop loss: 6.55

RF_032914

initial stop loss: 9.85

the beginning of the end of “T.M.I.” and “oversharing”? :)

from Amber Mac, Fast Company, “Social Media’s Next Act: Disappearing, Private, Secret-Filled Networks” (via mattcreem):

http://www.fastcompany.com/3027924/dialed/social-medias-next-act-disappearing-private-secret-filled-networks

“…Secret-filled networks do feel a bit (well, a lot) childish, but what they do enforce is the reality that there are plenty of users who want to stay anonymous online…”

A social pendulum swing from “TMI” towards exclusivity, curated networks as opposed to just edited content, might be a natural countermovement to social oversharing. The new “vaporware” might be just that, given current ephermal pic sharing mobile apps like Snapchat. Attention “KimYe”s of the world, please take heed. 🙂

This in not your father’s, grandfather’s or great-grandfather’s “OLD”-mobile.

This in not your father’s, grandfather’s or great-grandfather’s “OLD”-mobile.

In summary, my thoughts:

Elon Musk is changing how autos are powered, sold and made. It’s becoming more and more automated. Machines making machines, repaired by machines most likely soon enough.

Millennials are not buying. A mobile/cloud monthly identity bill can cost the same as a car.

More cars will be driving themselves, so we may need fewer of them.
(the Atlantic talks about the demand impact of automated cars)
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2014/03/if-cars-really-could-drive-themselves-how-many-would-we-need/284549/

(the Atlantic piece sources a Singapore study via Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Dept. of Aeronautics and Astronautics; Singapore-MIT Alliance for Research and Technology Center.)
“Using actual transportation data, our analysis suggests a shared-vehicle mobility solution can meet the personal mobility needs of the entire population with a fleet whose size is approximately 1/3 of the total number of passenger vehicles currently in operation.”
http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/82904

Cars are less about “vroom vroom” internal combustion culture, and may become “batteries” for our homes, so our vanity outlets may be through other venues.

Millennials and the next stage of American car culture

From fastcoexist.com site:

“Driving numbers are down for younger people and the auto industry hasn’t found a way to respond. It’s because they don’t understand why millennials could possibly not want to drive.”

http://www.fastcoexist.com/3027876/millennials-dont-care-about-owning-cars-and-car-makers-cant-figure-out-whyhttp://www.fastcoexist.com/3027876/millennials-dont-care-about-owning-cars-and-car-makers-cant-figure-out-why

Symbols of freedom and identity have moved from cool rides to cool apps and online presence and persona. Add some current economic conditions as a lesser factor, believe it or not, to generational priorities focused on life planning and paying for education and you’ll see it’s not about wheels. The auto makers have an opportunity to adapt and prosper in this environment, or not.

Combine this with a recent post about Elon Musk changing the car industry by not playing “their game”, and we see the makings of a secular change in American culture.

The challenge of the Internet of Things is the exponential challenge of regulatory compliance

From privacyandtechnology:

From the blog post:

“Cisco estimates that some 25 billion devices will be connected in the IoT by 2015, and 50 billion by 2020. Analyst firm IDC makes an even bolder prediction: 212 billion connected devices by 2020. This massive increase in connectedness will drive a wave of innovation and could generate up to $19 trillion in savings over the next decade, according to Cisco’s estimates. But the ingenuity and innovation which companies will apply to turn the IoT into practical reality is constrained by law and regulation. Existing issues may take on new dimensions and, as technologies combine, so will the legal consequences of those technologies. In this article, we look at the prospects for the IoT as well as the likely legal and regulatory factors that will affect the development and growth of IoT technology and the markets that such technology will create.”

Think of the “network effect” first bandied about when Fax machines were the rage in the US (putting lots of messenger bikes to pasture). Here will be born a whole new “ecology” of startups. Hello Kickstarter and other angel platforms. Plenty of things for cash rich Internet 2.0 and 3.0 leaders to put in their shopping carts. (random: Fax machines are still used heavily in Japan to do all kinds of communication, including food order deliveries).

But NOW consider the regulatory costs of this patchwork quilt of “things”, each falling under different regulatory regimes and constraints.

Tele-existence emerges in the wake of Oculus buyout by Facebook? (Inspired by The Verge post)

DSC_5129
(From The Verge, Picture Caption: “Norma Deseke, an anthropologist who played the role of “the performer” in the demonstration.”)

“I am no longer Aaron Souppouris. I am a woman. I am a stranger. I stare down at the mask I hold in my hands, struggling to comprehend how those hands, which are clearly not mine, are allowing me to…”

This is beyond the “Telepresence” of the late 1990s/early 2000s, this is the drafting of protocols for TELE-EXISTENCE, with the exploration of how to exercise our empathy muscles too. Fascinating. Prepubescent boys who were role-playing the character of heroine Lara Croft may have little “Juniors” of their own, role-FEELING some new iteration of that game character. Imagine all your hollywood metaphors (Matrix, Gamer, every John Woo films with “doppleganger” themes, etc.) come alive and then some.

In a first, scientists create artificial chromosome (CSmonitor.com)

0327-artificial-yeast-chromosome_full_600

http://www.csmonitor.com/Science/2014/0327/In-a-first-scientists-create-artificial-chromosome

“”Humans first domesticated yeast for wine and other alcohol during the days of the Fertile Crescent (roughly 4,000 years ago), and have been using it ever since to make bread, wine and beer, Boeke told Live Science. Today, he said, the fungus is also used to makevaccines, medicines and biofuels, and the ability to create custom-made yeast would provide useful too for the biotech industry.”

Welcome to the birth of … super-beer.

In all seriousness, this is a first step towards a lot more. Take a look at this link, regarding Pfizer’s history, and you can see R&D pharma/biotech going “full circle”

http://www.pfizer.com/about/history/timeline “The pioneering of the mass production of citric acid from sugar through mold fermentation fueled growth for years.”“

Here’s a suggestion about the implications: “For example, researchers could make synthetic strains of yeast to produce rare medicines such as the malarial drug artemisinin, or vaccines like the hepatitis B vaccine. Synthetic yeast could also churn out more efficient biofuels, such as alcohol, butanol or biodiesel, which could enable humanity to transition off of a petroleum economy, Boeke said.” Early days, which in a way hints at how long and dramatic the growth path could be for the global economy and medical technology.

A simple but elegant method to detect voter fraud

Talk about curve fitting:

Elections Fairness Votes for winner vs Voter turnout

datarep:

A simple but elegant method to detect election fraud and irregularities

rhiever:

Source: http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2012/09/20/1210722109.abstract

NOTHING SAYS FRAUD LIKE unbelievably “perfect” results from crowds. If people relate stories of holiday stress with out-of-town relations come the holidays, like Thanksgiving, how in the world can societies be that harmonious without a little “help”? 🙂

Elon Musk in Oslo and in the future

Elon Musk in Oslo $TSLA

http://www.datafox.co/blog/tesla-accelerating-the-advent-of-electric-cars/

Secular change.

From Musk:

“We really hope that the big car companies do copy Tesla. When you consider what is the fundamental good that Tesla will achieve from a global societal standpoint, the biggest positive impact that we will have is by getting the rest of the car industry to move towards sustainable transport faster. I think that’s really important. So copying Tesla is nothing to be concerned about, I wish they would do it faster, and I don’t know why they are taking so long.”

Musk’s language describes someone who is not playing by the rules of his CURRENT “competitors”. He is in fact not planning to develop his business over the long-term in their “space”, encapsulated within the corners of four wheels (not that the competitors grasp this in the context of their institutional culture). Musk in fact invites them to join him in his arena and leave behind a way of doing things developed over a century.

If you think about the nature of the transportation and the power grid, this is early days yet.

Ray Dalio and Andrew Carnegie: what they have in common

My “editorial”:

RISK is what it’s about. This is the world changing/shifting quality that Dalio knows something about. This ability to use it to change the world is not about ego or force of will but rather force of imagination, foresight and a fortitude rooted in independent thinking. Carnegie and Dalio are both “self-made” individuals who have forged a life and fortune from understanding and taking deliberately planned risk. Whether it’s 19th century steel mills or a 21st century hedge fund, risk was the lever that made things happen.

Andrew Carnegie Expand with no one else dares to take risks

Please see the below address for the Dalio interview at length plus a transcript:
http://www.achievement.org/autodoc/page/dal1int-1