Month: April 2014

$AMZN and $AAPL almost almost time

AMZN 6M wkly 042514

Just about time to short on a weekly basis, with a stop around 350+

AAPL 6M weekly 042514

Just about time to go long on a weekly basis, with a stop around 525+

NOT for the TIMID.

Two former Horsemen diverged in the woods $AAPL $AMZN

AAPL:AMZN weekly 1 yr

They both have cash. Both are name brands built by an iconic figure named Steve. One has a dividend and the other one tantalizes with the prospect of greater earnings “someday”. Apple versus Amazon. Let’s see how this plays over the coming 12 months. Price hints that Apple may be the bet to make and Amazon the one to sell.

Trading ideas as of April 20, 2014 are pretty “energetic” as it were $XLE

Weekly charts, looking at prices and volume. A list of suggested ideas that leans very heavily towards energy this week, which could be “late stage” for longs. No matter what, it’s about price, risk management and keeping it easy.

AEP_042014

suggested initial stop 48.4

BHI_042014

suggested initial stop 62.2

HES_042014

suggested initial stop 80.7

NBR_042014

suggested initial stop 22

NRG_042014

suggested initial stop 29.9

SLB_42014

suggested initial stop 92.5

SPN_042014

suggested initial stop 27.80

TSM_042014

suggested initial stop

UPL_042014

suggested initial stop 25.4

WEC_042014

suggested initial stop 44.8

WFT_042014

suggested initial stop 16.2

XLE_042014

suggested initial stop 87.9

XLU_042014

suggested initial stop 40.2

XOP_042014

suggested initial stop 70.8

The Need for Speed: Trains, Planes and (electric) automobiles (and…)

What can we look forward to when the post 2000-secular bear is over and some big bull market of the 2020s could be long in the tooth? This is a quick post relating to boom, bust and our desire to travel faster and farther.

On July 4, 1828, the last surviving signer of the Declaration of Independence and first U.S. Senator of Maryland, Charles Carroll, at age 91, would be at the shovel opening ceremony for the first railroad chartered in the still New New thing known as the United States.

1846.2.1-Charles Carroll of Carrollton (1737 - 1832), Oil on Canvas Michael Laty  (1826 - 1848), ca. 1846

The Baltimore & Ohio Railroad raised $4 million dollars(!) in 12 days and would also become the first railroad company to transition from horses to steam-powered locomotion with a train called the “Tom Thumb”. (You can also thank Tom Thumb inventor Peter Cooper everytime you have Jell-O, he got the first patent for gelatin.)

cooper_tom_thumb

B&O Railroad stock certificate 12 d to raise 4M

The new new tech of railroads would face opposition by wagon and canal operators, by threatened merchants, and by clergy claiming man was not meant to travel at such great speed, but it was only a matter of time before the need for speed would attract more capital.

Canal companies could not hope to compete against transport technology that didn’t rely upon waterways and good weather, and eventually trains became an accepted part of history. (In 1831, one rail company called Mohawk & Hudson, reduced what would have been a day long canal trek to one hour by rail.)

Delaware_and_Hudson_Canal_Honesdale_basin
(RE: The Delaware and Hudson Canal Company)

First there would be the effusive investment acceptance and commensurate pricing of this hot new new transport thing, extreme optimism, the willingness to pay a premium for the future, drawing more capital but also late “adopters”, followed by disillusionment and busts. Despite the early busts of the 1800s, trains were not derailed and we continue to rely upon them in the 21st century.

us-railroad-stock-prices_1865_1895

You can still invest in B&O Railroad today, via it’s merger descendant CSX.

rail merger chart as of 070707

In 1927, Charles Lindbergh, helped to trigger the next big transportation investment boom, in wake of the 1926 Air Commerce Act. (Lindbergh’s future father-in-law, J.P. Morgan partner Dwight Morrow was recruited by President Coolidge to chair a board that developed the beginning of Federal aviation policies leading to the 1926 Act.) Lindbergh’s landing of the “Spirit of St. Louis” in Paris would open the floodgates of investment and public enthusiasm for aviation. The 1928 Aircraft Year Book noted “money, everywhere, seemed available for aviation…” to the tune of $1B USD during the 20 months that followed Lindbergh’s success, resulting in a 1929 $1B USD aviation industry valuation versus 90M USD in actual earnings.

unitedairlinestransportvig

During those early years, even with the public embrace of commercial aviation, it was seen as a mere complement to the “old” standby, railroads, by then a very mature industry, having gone through several boom bust and innovation cycles. In fact, here’s a 1927 stamp commemorating the old “B&O”, celebrating its centenary.

BOstamp1927 125 years commemorative
charles_lindbergh_spirit_of_st_louis_after_new_york_paris_flight_1927
(We won’t get into happened in 1929. Anyone remotely interested in this post knows what followed, but airlines and aircraft were here to stay.)

So, here we are, almost 100 years after Lindbergh.

This post was inspired by the past year’s stock market and public awareness that a 20th Century automotive unicorn, a commercially successful electric car, could become a mainstream transportation technology and eclipse a century of petroleum powered vehicles.

tesla-motors-factory-5595_620x413

At this point, everyone knows about Elon Musk assuming leadership at Tesla, which has invited other automakers to push forward with more “hybrid” offerings. Tesla’s stock price has raced from post-IPO disappointment to great enthusiasm to some disappointment yet again.

TSLA

So, no matter what happens to TSLA shares, the electric battery platform looks very promising, just as trains, planes (and hydrocarbon powered) automobiles became a part of daily economic life.

You know what I’m suggesting. We already can invest in the prospect of a century of automobiles that will be powered by electricity, which might even drive themselves, powering our homes when they’re parked in the driveway/garage (charged by panels we might have bought or leased from another Musk-associated enterprise, Solar City but that’s a separate post, watch out utility companies.)

model-s-pack.2011-01-28-600-1300797283 (A Tesla “battery” which may, according to Musk, eventually be replaced by an “ultracapacitor”, essentially larger versions of the ones that power electronic devices, offering instant recharge and no degradation.)

What can we hope to expect circa 2027 from either Elon Musk or someone else like him? Shall we celebrate the Lindbergh Landing Centenary and invest in an IPO of SpaceX?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Carroll_of_Carrollton
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delaware_and_Hudson_Canal
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Thumb_(locomotive)
http://www.ushistory.org/us/
http://www.century-of-flight.net/index.htm
http://generalaviationnews.com
http://inventors.about.com/library/inventors/bl_tom_thumb.htm
http://www.engadget.com/2011/03/22/tesla-ceo-musk-says-the-days-of-batteries-are-numbered-ultracap/

Steampunk HFT circa 1869/70: Edison and the quadruplex

Quadruplex Telegraph Rutgers University

(Photo credit: Rutgers University http://edison.rutgers.edu/index.htm )

Not quite 150 years before High Frequency Trading has become the bugaboo beast, dominating markets with enormous (if at times tenuous) order volume in exchange for order flow revenue for the financial exchanges, there was a dramatic technological leap of a greater order of magnitude, courtesy of Thomas Edison, which upended the “old order” on the stock market.

Some years before inventing inventions including the electric incandescent light bulb, the phonograph, and the electric grid, Edison, arrived in New York from Boston, an itinerant seasoned telegrapher. He also turned out to be the only person capable of repairing a telegraph machine at Law’s Gold & Stock Reporting company, one of the predecssors to Western Union. Hired as a supervisor, Edison would develop the quadruplex, which boosted the telegraph’s signal carrying capacity. The markets would move even further from its buttonwood tree roots, soon after Edison’s arrival in New York.

The NYSE during that time soon transitioned from its TWICE A DAY human auction towards the familiar sight of daily trading during the decade, thanks in part to Edison’s several telegraph innovations, preceding the light bulb’s debut in 1879.

The Million Dollar Homepage still exists, but 22% of it has rotted away