Month: May 2014

Charts as of May 31, 2014

LOTS and LOTS of realty plays, even after screening out for either volume and price.

AGG_053114

AMJ_053114

AN_053114

AVB_053114

BXP_053114

CL_053114

CLDT_053114

CNQ_053114

DRE_053114

EMB_053114

EPI_053114

EWC_053114

GDP_053114

GGP_053114

GPK_053114

HES_053114

HT_053114

IPG_053114

IYR_053114

LNG_053114

OEF_053114

OVTI_053114

PPC_053114

SAN_053114

SBAC_053114

SHO_053114

SIAL_053114

syy_053114

TAP_053114

TRN_053114

VIG_053114

Advertisements

charts on watch $HK $IPG $PPL $TLT

Charts presented without comment

TLT_052914

PPL_052914

IPG_052914

HK_052914

SAME AS LAST WEEK: SANGUINE and DESULTORY
It’s about price and then volume, that has my attention.
Things like “trendiness” and trading ranges are the other details which help me gauge size and “affordability” of the prospective risk.

Memorial Day, Charts as of week beginning March 26, 2014

Wishing everyone a grateful and happy Memorial Day!

Below are charts, weekly basis, presented as simply as possible, with an accommodation of some simple weekly averages to provide some “tone” that there are still longs out there in abundance. Here are a bunch that have price, volume and activity that might merit your attention.

amkr_052614

EPI_052614

HCA_052614

IPG_052614

lrcx_052614

mack_052614

MON_052614

NVS_052614

RAD_052614

TQNT_052614

WMB_052614

Watching the market May 20, 2014: Diagnosis – Sanguine and desultory

Price action declared that fixed income was a winner in Q1 2014 + and there is a steady rise in the equity indices, unaccompanied by the “trend” strength and lately tepid volume (no surprise at the moment as Memorial Day and spring becomes summer). Eyes on the Yen, palladium (Putin “premium”? Who knows.), OIS (Einhorn play), and treasuries. We use prices, so maybe the cream is off the top or the bloom off the “rose” for treasuries, but with a tepid market and TEPPER replacing TAPER for the market ennui animus, it might not hurt to place a bid, as we wait for confirmation of a correction that is more than one “through time”.

Just as happy pulling a “Livermore” and sitting in a mountain retreat metaphorically.

In the meantime, still riding WFT, PDS and SUNE (einhorn and Ein HURTING at the moment).

JNK_052014

DIA_WK_052014

SPY_052014

IWM_WK_052014

WMB_WK_052014

OIS_WK_052014

FXY_wk_052014

TLT_WK_052014

Right now, treasuries have confirmed Gundlach (of Doubleline fame)’s target of 2.5 yield. Maybe the “easy” money is off but if the market does MORE than correct “through time” and begins to do it through PRICE, this trend may continue. Meantime, USTs yield the most compared to a lot of other sovereigns. The quest for yield and/or to sit out equity gyration is a reality at the moment, I won’t even bother discussing Millennial aversion to equities and baby boomer retirement as factors, which you can heap onto the pile of the debatable “whys”.

PALL_WK_052014

TLT_WK_051914

Z_WK_052014

Has it been “buy the dips” …for US Treasuries?

TLT_DAILY_010114

TLT_WK_2014

I have two systems, one would have said yes a while ago, another is on the verge of just going pure long and strong on a trend-following basis.

Four trades under consideration $BAM $EPI $MO $WMB

Four different ideas with one reason to go long, price. $BAM $EPI $MO $WMB

MO a/k/a Altria f/k/a Philip Morris is a dividend standard in a “vice” investment, in an environment currently in flux.

EPI a/k/a India is a BRIC play that surprises after the current dismay over emerging markets. (Recent comments from Gundlach lend a macro/fundy flavor that hints that late shorts could be in for stop loss exits.)

Both BAM WMB tell an infrastructure/energy story that is compelling.

We hear risk-off, taper, slowing growth but how does that jibe with emerging markets and cyclical/infrastructure trades moving up? (short covering? real pockets of prosperity?) It’s all about price and keeping an eye on risk, the answers reveal themselves almost as an afterthought to the trader.

WMB_051514

MO_051514

EPI_051514

BAM_051514

Charts to look at May 19, 2014 $WMB $MO $EPI $BAM $IBN $KR $AMKR $UL

In an uncertain market filled with lots of back and forth prognostication, all I have to go on is the price action. Below are charts to look at, on a weekly basis, of what could work or not, placed in no particular order. I used to set initial stop losses but I’m evaluating how I produce and share. I think to set my stops could cloud the thinking of other traders and readers, with different time frames and approaches, who should take a look at these ideas and run them through their respective mental mills.

BLL

TTM_051514

TAP_051514

BAM_051514

HSP_051514

UDR_051514

OHI_051514

SPG_051514

UN_051514

HDB_051514

UL_051514

AMKR_051514

KR_051514

IBN_051514

EPI_051514

MO_051514

WMB_051514

Wisdom by Paul Tudor Jones on the “last third” of a market move & on skewed reward-risk

The first quote says a lot to me about the recent tenor of the market, whether it’s the start of a bull market end or a time based consolidation.

The second quote says a lot about what to do in all environments, and something I increasingly embrace and wish I adopted on a visceral level much earlier.

“There is no training — classroom or otherwise — that can prepare for trading the last third of a move, whether it’s the end of a bull market or the end of a bear market. There’s typically no logic to it; irrationality reigns supreme, and no class can teach what to do during that brief, volatile reign. The only way to learn how to trade during that last, exquisite third of a move is to do it, or, more precisely, live it.”

“I look for opportunities with tremendously skewed reward-risk opportunities. Don’t ever let them get into your pocket – that means there’s no reason to leverage substantially. There’s no reason to take substantial amounts of financial risk ever, because you should always be able to find something where you can skew the reward risk relationship so greatly in your favor that you can take a variety of small investments with great reward risk opportunities that should give you minimum draw down pain and maximum upside opportunities.”

h/t to http://socialleverage50.com/2013/06/25/13-insights-from-paul-tudor-jones/

Charts as of May 02, 2014: from $AEP to $Z

FROM $AEP to $Z

AEP_050214

initial stop loss 49.2

BAX_050214

initial stop loss 69.6

CAM_watch_050214

initial stop loss 59.4

CLR_050214

initial stop loss 119.2

CNX_050214

initial stop loss 40

COP_050214

initial stop loss 72.1

CPN_050214

initial stop loss 20.9

CRK_050214

initial stop loss 22.3

DE_watch_050214

initial stop loss 87.5

DUK_050214

initial stop loss 68.7

DYN_050214

initial stop loss 26.6

ETR_050214

initial stop loss 67.7

grmn_050214

initial stop loss 51.06

hst_050214

initial stop loss 19.8

ITUB_watch_050214

initial stop loss 14.9

KR_050214

initial stop loss 43.3

MAR_050214

initial stop loss 54.75

MO_050214

initial stop loss 37.8

MTDR_050214

initial stop loss 23.5

NEE_TRADE_050214

initial stop loss 91.6

NRG_050214

initial stop loss 31.1

NU_050214

initial stop loss 43.2

NVS_050214

initial stop loss 82.1

PDS_050214

initial stop loss 11.5

POR_050214

initial stop loss 30.8

PPL_050214

initial stop loss 31.8

SAN_watch_050214

initial stop loss 9.2

SLCA_050214

initial stop loss39.1

su_050214

initial stop loss 36.5

TOT_050214

initial stop loss 66.2

UPL_050214

initial stop loss 25.5

WEC_050214

initial stop loss 44.9

Z_050214

initial stop loss 80.4