LOTS and LOTS of realty plays, even after screening out for either volume and price.
Wishing everyone a grateful and happy Memorial Day!
Below are charts, weekly basis, presented as simply as possible, with an accommodation of some simple weekly averages to provide some “tone” that there are still longs out there in abundance. Here are a bunch that have price, volume and activity that might merit your attention.
Price action declared that fixed income was a winner in Q1 2014 + and there is a steady rise in the equity indices, unaccompanied by the “trend” strength and lately tepid volume (no surprise at the moment as Memorial Day and spring becomes summer). Eyes on the Yen, palladium (Putin “premium”? Who knows.), OIS (Einhorn play), and treasuries. We use prices, so maybe the cream is off the top or the bloom off the “rose” for treasuries, but with a tepid market and TEPPER replacing TAPER for the market ennui animus, it might not hurt to place a bid, as we wait for confirmation of a correction that is more than one “through time”.
Just as happy pulling a “Livermore” and sitting in a mountain retreat metaphorically.
In the meantime, still riding WFT, PDS and SUNE (einhorn and Ein HURTING at the moment).
Right now, treasuries have confirmed Gundlach (of Doubleline fame)’s target of 2.5 yield. Maybe the “easy” money is off but if the market does MORE than correct “through time” and begins to do it through PRICE, this trend may continue. Meantime, USTs yield the most compared to a lot of other sovereigns. The quest for yield and/or to sit out equity gyration is a reality at the moment, I won’t even bother discussing Millennial aversion to equities and baby boomer retirement as factors, which you can heap onto the pile of the debatable “whys”.
Four different ideas with one reason to go long, price. $BAM $EPI $MO $WMB
MO a/k/a Altria f/k/a Philip Morris is a dividend standard in a “vice” investment, in an environment currently in flux.
EPI a/k/a India is a BRIC play that surprises after the current dismay over emerging markets. (Recent comments from Gundlach lend a macro/fundy flavor that hints that late shorts could be in for stop loss exits.)
Both BAM WMB tell an infrastructure/energy story that is compelling.
We hear risk-off, taper, slowing growth but how does that jibe with emerging markets and cyclical/infrastructure trades moving up? (short covering? real pockets of prosperity?) It’s all about price and keeping an eye on risk, the answers reveal themselves almost as an afterthought to the trader.
In an uncertain market filled with lots of back and forth prognostication, all I have to go on is the price action. Below are charts to look at, on a weekly basis, of what could work or not, placed in no particular order. I used to set initial stop losses but I’m evaluating how I produce and share. I think to set my stops could cloud the thinking of other traders and readers, with different time frames and approaches, who should take a look at these ideas and run them through their respective mental mills.
The first quote says a lot to me about the recent tenor of the market, whether it’s the start of a bull market end or a time based consolidation.
The second quote says a lot about what to do in all environments, and something I increasingly embrace and wish I adopted on a visceral level much earlier.
“There is no training — classroom or otherwise — that can prepare for trading the last third of a move, whether it’s the end of a bull market or the end of a bear market. There’s typically no logic to it; irrationality reigns supreme, and no class can teach what to do during that brief, volatile reign. The only way to learn how to trade during that last, exquisite third of a move is to do it, or, more precisely, live it.”
“I look for opportunities with tremendously skewed reward-risk opportunities. Don’t ever let them get into your pocket – that means there’s no reason to leverage substantially. There’s no reason to take substantial amounts of financial risk ever, because you should always be able to find something where you can skew the reward risk relationship so greatly in your favor that you can take a variety of small investments with great reward risk opportunities that should give you minimum draw down pain and maximum upside opportunities.”
FROM $AEP to $Z
initial stop loss 49.2
initial stop loss 69.6
initial stop loss 59.4
initial stop loss 119.2
initial stop loss 40
initial stop loss 72.1
initial stop loss 20.9
initial stop loss 22.3
initial stop loss 87.5
initial stop loss 68.7
initial stop loss 26.6
initial stop loss 67.7
initial stop loss 51.06
initial stop loss 19.8
initial stop loss 14.9
initial stop loss 43.3
initial stop loss 54.75
initial stop loss 37.8
initial stop loss 23.5
initial stop loss 91.6
initial stop loss 31.1
initial stop loss 43.2
initial stop loss 82.1
initial stop loss 11.5
initial stop loss 30.8
initial stop loss 31.8
initial stop loss 9.2
initial stop loss39.1
initial stop loss 36.5
initial stop loss 66.2
initial stop loss 25.5
initial stop loss 44.9
initial stop loss 80.4