Month: September 2014

random musing on bitcoin public ledger + Internet of things => data mining

Can say an toaster, beginnning with OEM I.O.T. of subcomponents, created during a 3D maker’s creation of the bespoke said item, then be put into cloud “public ledger”, so that it can be tracked from usage manufacturing efficiency, through lifetime maintenance, usage rates, consumption habits, ultimately to recycling be data mined? Could then this data mining be part of increasing manufacturing, consumption efficiencies/patterns? Could such data then be tied into such processes related to raw material(old school mining/recycling)/transportation(delivery of item to user)/powering(electrons/photons for heat and information systems) supply chain management, agricultural/bio-tech aspects of the “bread” fed into “toaster”?

Pseudonymity would overlay the “public ledger” (the bitcoin part of the protocol) so that data mining would occur without invasive effect, except of course for the inevitable ad-sourcing/seeking financing, within a separate economic/social activity layer related to the “toaster”, which might be related to the payment for/rent-seek of manufacturing, harvesting/bio-growth/sourcing of bread,production of grid/solar-arrayed sourced electrons and consumption of the bread?

Could increased efficiencies then reduce the likelihood of smoke detectors from being activated by burnt bread, making such a thing even less likely? 🙂

just a thought.

“I am a stone…” $STUDY #PATIENCE


From the film Enemy At the Gates

Additional Ideas for week of 9/29/14 $DXJ $BAC $HD $COST $LB $XLV $MO $MNK $WLP short: $BTU $CBS $VIAB $ABX $OII $ETN $NE $MAT $SDRL $RIG $RDC

Additional ideas, via weekly price bar and volume filters long $DXJ $BAC $HD $COST $LB $XLV $MO $MNK $WLP short: $BTU $CBS $VIAB $ABX $OII $ETN $NE $MAT $SDRL $RIG $RDC We can see it’s still long large caps in: financials, big box retailers, health and even Japan (hedged) and short energies and media. Price tells the tale of the past quarter. All you have to do is listen and act accordingly.

WLP_092614

long 120.8, stop 111.8

MNK_092614

long 90, stop 82.5

MO_092614

long 45.8, stop 43.6

XLV_092614

long 64.4, stop 61.8

LB_092614

long 68.2, stop 64.3

COST_092614

long 125.5, stop 120.3

BAC_092614

long 17, stop 16

DXJ_092614

long 52.8, stop 50.9

RDC_092614

short 26, stop 28.4

RIG_092614

short 33.3, stop 36.7

SDRL_092614

short 27.2, stop 31.1

MAT_092614

short 30.8, stop 32.7

NE_092614

short 23, stop 25.7

ETN_092614

short 65, stop 68.5

OII_092614

short 65, stop 70.1

ABX_092614

short 15.2, stop 16.8

VIAB_092614

short 77.1, stop 81

CBS_092614

short 54.5, stop 58.4

BTU_092614

short 12, stop 13.7

Trades in 60 Seconds for 9/29/14: $NKE $AMBA $VRTX $BRCD $DRC $ACT $VALE $FLR $BKLN $CPA $ESV


$NKE $AMBA $VRTX $BRCD $DRC $ACT $VALE $FLR $BKLN $CPA $ESV

The market is filled with constant reasons to buy, sell, doubt, but there are two constants to focus on, regardless of system, approach, and reasons/motivation for particpation: PRICE and RISK. This blog presents simple weekly price charts, filtered for the audience with considerations for volume and market value of traded volume. Right now, the tale of the tape is short energy and long bio/pharma, and some of that shows in this 60 second sampling.

NKE_092514

entry 89.50, stop 82.9

AMBA_092614

entry 41.8, stop 33

VRTX_092514

entry 113.6, stop 100.7

BRCD_092514

entry 10.8, stop 9.8

DRC_092514

entry 82.6, stop 75

VALE_092514

short 11.2, stop 12.5

FLR_092514

short 67.65, stop 72.3

BKLN_092514

short 24.2, stop 24.5

CPA_092514

short 105, 116.2

ESV_092514

short 42.4, stop 46.4

Futures review for 9/21/2014: $DX_F $UUP $CL_F $USO $ES_F $NQ_F $6A_F $FXA

The tale of the tape is about 3 letters: U,S and D. The USD has been driving the bus for weeks since the heart of summer season, with a record 10 weeks under its belt. How much longer can we go? No telling.

DXZ14_092114

“Strong Dollar” is probably a big search term now.

CLH15_092114

Headed back, week after week, back to beneath the earth, driven there by USD’s climb.

NQZ14_092114

Averages say game on.

ESZ14_092114

Averages say it’s back to “buy”.

A6Z14_092114

Aussie, Aussie, NOi NOi Noi.

ZNZ14_092114

The name is Bond, Cheaper Bond.

This week’s broader sell/short list for 9/21/14: $ESV $MAT $SDRL $RIG $RRC $VMI $MPEL

This week, I decided to break out a list of sells, as I see evidence of a group-wide movement among oil service/drillers, which appear to be another way of shorting a USD-denominated commodity, crude oil, and silver. (Mattel, however, is the odd one out, and makes toys and who knows what’s going on there.) These are symptoms of a record climb (10 weeks of successive highs (not seen since LBJ) and counting) in the U.S. Dollar, which might be the beneficiary of forces including the Federal Reserve taper and a begrudging European “QE” program launched to contend with a EU slowdown. $ESV $MAT $SDRL $RIG $RRC $VMI $MPEL ESV_092114 MAT_092114 MPEL_092114 OII_092114 RIG_092114 RRC_092114 SDRL_092114 SLV_092114 VMI_092114

This week’s broader ideas list for week of 9/21/14: from $AKAM to $ZTS

$AKAM $AMBA $BAC $C $DIA $DRC $GD $GS $HD $HIG $INTU $KSS $LNC $MAS MO $MS $MSFT $MWE $NOK $REGN $RSG $STLD $STT $SWK $TRP $UUP $VOYA $X $XLF $XLK $ZTS

In a few words, tech, financial services and cyclical/industrial plays with surprises like NOKIA ($NOK). If you drill for black gold, you’re out of luck but you’re just passing gas (forgive the pun), you’re making money. Oil services in drilling and exploration are just burning up long holders, so those are shorts/sales. The big “MACRO” indicator of this condition for oil is $UUP (or the DX_F contract or many FX crosses with USD).

Presented below are charts, using weekly price bars, selected with an eye to sustained “trend” and elevated volume.

AKAM_092114

AMBA_092114

BAC_092114

C_092114

DIA_092114

DRC_092114

GD_092114

GS_092114

HD_092114

HIG_092114

INTU_092114

KSS_092114

LNC_092114

MAS_092114

MO_092114

MS_092114

MSFT_092114

MWE_092114

NOK_092114

REGN_092114

RSG_092114

STLD_092114

STT_092114

SWK_092114

TRP_092114

UUP_092114

VOYA_092114

X_092114

XLF_092114

XLK_092114

ZTS_092114

Trades in 60 Seconds: $AKAM $AMBA $DIA $DRC $MPEL $MS $MWE $RIG $RSG $SDRL $STLD $SWK $TRP $UUP $XLF

$AKAM $AMBA $DIA $DRC $MPEL $MS $MWE $RIG $RSG $SDRL $STLD $SWK $TRP $UUP $XLF

It’s business as usual for those who focus on price and risk management. Learning to focus on price has helped me manage years of armchair talk/media noise about a collapsing European periphery, the rise of China, the end of the “way things used to be” in America, the taper, rate hike/no rate hike and more. Things keep rolling on, the capital has to go somewhere, people have families to start, things to do, and places to be. And so where does the capital have to be now?

The market is telling me, from my slow as molasses, weekly price bar system, and accounting only for those with elevated trading volume, that the current “action” in the past month includes financial services, and USD, up and oil services down (if you’re drilling for it BUT not if you’re merely transporting it once harvested).

AKAM_092114

62.4 entry, stop 57.8

AMBA_092114

38.75 entry, 30.8 stop

DIA_092114

172.4 entry, 168.4 stop

DRC_092114

79.9 entry, 71.9 stop

MPEL_092114

37 entry (short), 40.4 stop

MS_092114

35.7 entry, 33.4 stop

MWE_092114

78.4 entry, 72.8 stop

RIG_092114

34 entry (short), 37.5 stop

RSG_092114

39 entry, 37.8 stop

SDRL_092114

28.2 entry (short) 32.2 stop

STLD_092114

24.3 entry, 22.1 stop

SWK_092114

93.25 entry,89.25 stop

TRP_092114

56 entry, 51.50 stop

UUP_092114

22.5 entry, 22.1 stop

XLF_092114

23.6 entry, 22.8 stop

Futures Chart $SB_F $SGG :SUGAR CRASH continues

A dramatic decline since early July 2014 continues for SUGAR. Bottom seekers are likely in attendance, and their longs would have been caramelized to a crisp these last 2 months. Price followers have likely been short since the first two weeks of July. If one dares to short the sweet stuff, a suggested stop loss might be 46.0 for $SGG shorts as of the September 12, 2014 close of about 42 (or about $400 per round lot), or a stop loss at about 15 cents for the futures version as of the recent close @13.75+ cents (at 112,000 pounds per contract, that’s a risk of about $1400 per contract). SGG_091514 SBV14_091514

More trading ideas for 9/15/2014 $ARUN $AVNR $CMCSA $CSIQ $CYH $KSS $MSFT $NKE $NOR $STT $VOYA $WWAV $XLV

Another grouping of ideas for the week beginning 9/15/2014 $ARUN $AVNR $CMCSA $CSIQ $CYH $KSS $MSFT $NKE $NOR $STT $VOYA $WWAV $XLV using weekly price bars, filtered by elevated trading volumes

ARUN_091514

AVNR_01514

CMCSA_091514

CSIQ_091514

CYH_091514

KSS_091514

MSFT_091514

NKE_091514

NOR_091514

STT_091514

VOYA_091514

WWAV_091514

XLV_091514