Speculation

Rooster Signal Trade Ideas, from Friday, October 4, 2013, with suggested stop losses

Presented in descending order of market value, from largest to smallest, are long trade ideas, with suggested stop loss points.

Above 250M USD in market value of trade, as of Friday, October 4, 2013:

KFT 39.94
PXD 183.05
DAL 22.33
CELG 141.81
SINA 76.98
SLB 84.55
MOS 41.04
EOG 161.65
YELP 60.92

Above 100M USD in market value of trade, as of Friday, October 4, 2013:
RAD 4.49
OXY 89.91
ACT 134.92
FSLR 37.31
ICE 180.71
MYL 37.39
CF 197.64
LYB 70.17
XOP 64.3
COF 66.06
LNG 31.21
SBUX 72.66
HCA 42.44
CIEN 24.29
SHW 173.38
NOK 6.07
DG 55.03
CMG 407.34
CLR 102.54
PII 123.59
CAM 56.62
EMN 73.51
OAS 47.47
NYX 41.94
CNX 32.55
CERN 49.73

Above 50M USD in traded market value, as of Friday, October 4, 2013:
NUS 89.4
DECK 59.75
PTEN 21.1
ADS 202.36
NOW 49.01
XEC 92
SPWR 23.56
DLTR 55.31
SPLK 55.69
NBR 15.99
LUV 13.75
CRZO 36.83
SN 25.42
EW 67.95
CSIQ 16.05
SAN 8
LPI 27.61
CMCSK 40.99
EWT 13.83
YGE 6.22
URI 53.76
SLCA 24.49
SUNE 7.07
MPEL 29.79
APKT 28.38
MELI 123.97
NDAQ 30.8

Above 25M USD market value:
DANG 9.35
UTHR 77.98
SBGI 29.96
ROSE 51.67
AMG 176.04
SID 3.92
ST 36.53
SYNA 42
WNR 28
TIVO 11.68
GDP 22.37
CYOU 34.26
CPA 128.07
N 102.74
HCBK 8.59
CINF 44.93
EWI 14.02
PCRX 46.91
BIL 45.5
TEF 15.47

Above 10M USD market value:
DWRE 43.54
PBCT 13.85
CNC 59.85
WCG 65.6
CODE 10.13
RGR 57.61
EWP 34.14
BITA 16.14
CIG 8.26
APO 27.01
WWWW 29.49
SIVB 81.72
INFN 10.47
PB 58.26
PRLB 70.81
XPH 75.4
MTDR 14.76
TPLM 9.2
BBVA 10.92
OZM 10.58
CFX 54.03
GGG 70.33
BCOR 21.76
LGND 40.81

Sale/short ideas, presented in descending market value, with suggested stop loss points:

From 125M to 1.25B USD market value, in descending size order, with stops:

GOOG 918.93
CVX 124.07
GDX 28.25
GS 168.61
LMT 129.64
HCP 43.15
Z 102.61
NEM 31.18
GG 29.34
GSK 52.57

Above 10M USD market value, with suggested stop loss points:
SLW 27.92
AUY 11.61
GDXJ 46.68
NSR 51.09
KGC 5.63
BYI 75.84
ATML 8.17
FLTX 41.26
AEM 30.1
EGO 7.77
MNKD 6.56
ARNA 5.78
EVER 15.74

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Just got a brain burst; an idea about a new present reality for “television” and “film”

Imagine a platform and a medium where shows like “Firefly” got the funding and had a season 3, 4, 5, etc. for as long as creatives and fans could make it.

Entertainment media that was a 21st century version of the Little Rascals, doing “Our Gang” barn shows to raise money, to save an orphanage or whatever the kids were up to.

Imagine Kickstarter/Crowd Funded “LIKES” of television pilots, existing shows, independent and feature films, seeking a home on a network and/or distribution to every screen hooked up to the Internet. Imagine the fan base was so big and loyal, that the idea of Soap Opera was supplanted by the Fan Opera and shows went to Netflix/AmazonGo/OnlineDemandPlatform nascent original programming outlets, instead of the “Big Three” that used to be a wealthy B&W video analog transmission troika.

We’ve gone from $1 funding of political campaigns to the far less serious, important but no less significant move to fund with millions of $1 likes all kinds of fresh, entertaining, market desired entertainment/information programming.

Fans fund the show with USD-accounted/funded/coupled “Likes” or thumbsup, green light the scripts and fund a season of Firefly in this alternate media reality, and buy their own shows. A million executive producer credits would now be involved in the creation of a show, funded by the fans, written in part (by some of the fans), and casted with famous/not so famous fans.

It’s the Veronica Mars kickstarter as the mainstream method of movie production. It’s where owners of current hot properties, in need of a home hire agents versed in social media and discussion, to help raise enough crowd capital to fund another new season/remake or revival of a show.

YES, LOL, Futurama would live on YET AGAIN, for the umpteenth time.

The dark side would be the Kardashians of the world gamed the system, but that is the price of having an open source media entertainment platform.

IBD Top 50 Charts as of Sept. 15, 2013

These are interesting charts,just showing the last 30 days. The stops are based on a pure mechanical exit if one had entered at the close of Friday, Sept.13, 2013. According to the IBD methodology, however, entries would be at different points, depending upon appropriate breakouts, highs from a “proper” IBD-style base period, which IBD can provide.

AVG stop@ 21.36

AVG_30D_2013-09-15-TOS_CHARTS

EDU stop@ 21.54

EDU_30D_2013-09-15-TOS_CHARTS

HLF stop@ 59

HLF_30D_2013-09-15-TOS_CHARTS

HTZ stop@ 24.66

HTZ_30D_2013-09-15-TOS_CHARTS

REGN stop@ 257

REGN_30D_2013-09-15-TOS_CHARTS

RGR stop@ 59.27

RGR_30D_2013-09-15-TOS_CHARTS

ULTA stop@ 104.46

ULTA_30D_2013-09-15-TOS_CHARTS

Ideas with stops as of Sept. 10, 2013 $EEM $FB $EWZ $FXI $DAL $KFT $POT $XLE et al

Longs and then short/sales presented in descending order of trading market volume.

in the mega volume section, we see the global markets are warmed up considerably:

$1B+ market volume:
Hang Seng 21569.43
EEM 38.49
FB 39.46
Nikkei 13035.33
EWZ 42.83
FXI 35.65
DAL 18.7
KFT 39.94

From $250M – $1B market volume:
VWO 38.24
POT 28.12
XLE 79.83
F 15.81
INTC 21.49
AIG 45.45
SLB 80.75
AMZN 276.81
GM 33.38
LVS 56.56
EWJ 10.95
MA 598.54
HAL 46.6
VALE 14.55
CELG 133.53
GILD 56.88
MS 25.26
AMT 68.52
BA 100.17
CCI 67.07
EOG 150.71
BSX 10.77
PBR 13.33
BHI 46.71
PHM 13.93
NTAP 40.22
FIO 11.38
CHK 24.42

from 100M – 250M market volume:
XHB 27.57
NOK 4.74
MON 94.71
XLB 39.75
REGN 242.22
HTZ 22.9
LEN 29.29
QIHU 72.14
APC 87.76
APA 79.8
NOV 73.44
DOW 35.99
LYB 65.44
UNH 69.67
NUS 82.62
EMR 58.68
JOY 47.58
DG 53.13
CMI 119.68
ITB 19.59
IBB 191.72
MGM 17.12
OIH 44.82
LNG 27.9
X 17.19
WYNN 134.49
RSX 26.36
WLT 11.95
XOP 60.39
EWY 57.84
CLR 90.23
UA 72.45
DVN 55.08
YY 36.27
CAM 54.75
QLD 71.22
BBD 11.62
XLNX 43.19
OAS 38.76
PXD 164.91
SU 33.11
COH 50.06
GGB 6.7
HIG 29.06
DRYS 2.5
AKAM 45.23
NBL 59.47
BTU 16.01
SPLK 53.01
EWT 13.42

From 50M to 100M market volume:
RH 67.74
OCN 48.93
ADBE 44.39
CMG 386.16
FXA 89.25
NOW 43.48
XEC 80.14
IWO 115.8
MCK 117.79
SPN 23.8
FLEX 8.75
ROK 94.67
TXT 26.58
WFT 14.33
YNDX 30.83
ANR 5.46
USG 22.97
SPWR 19.11
TSCO 116.3
CNX 30.97
RDC 35.12
FBHS 35.27
IACI 48.38
SWKS 23.41
VIV 20.24
WLK 97.01
FTI 50.8
ECH 47.78
ACI 4.17
ILF 35.11
GDP 20.84
BCR 112.12
GNC 48.84
KMX 47.33
LQDT 29.42
AES 12.31
SD 4.9
FLS 53.89
YGE 4.52
EWA 23.67
PTEN 18.35
TRN 40.36
ERIC 12.44
EWH 18.73
TSL 9.35

From 10M to 50M market volume:
RAX 43.23
LL 90.49
URI 51.43
RAD 3.08
AMBA 13.96
EWU 18.58
OII 75.45
CSTR 53.4
ANN 32.58
NBR 14.83
WAGE 42.69
LINTA 22.34
RKUS 13.62
CNQR 93.24
VEU 45.66
ROSE 43.85
EWC 27.15
CSIQ 10.76
ERJ 32.02
TSU 20.01
LSI 7.14
KSU 100.94
XBI 119.93
N 94.59
SLCA 21.33
GWRE 42.02
SBGI 22.85
DECK 55.34
SID 3.55
JASO 7.01
TIVO 10.98
UTHR 68.52
BLOX 35.96
LUK 25.28
EVR 43.12
PKX 72.5
ALKS 29.89
DEM 49.27
PRAA 42.79
ST 36.11
NGLS 45.65
SOL 4.46
GNK 3.52
JKS 15.07
AWAY 28.38
MTL 2.91
SMH 36.9
TNGO 19.73
LPI 23.66
GOL 3.92
FEIC 76.4
GRM 25.13
CFX 50.92
MAKO 14
ASGN 29.49
FNGN 51.98
EPAM 29.95
IRBT 29.88
BCEI 38.09
NM 6.51
SREV 11.29
FTK 19.33
SSNC 33.12
IEO 73.78
AFOP 29.59
IRE 11.37
EPL 30.96
TPLM 6.44
IYM 69.86
TK 38.06
IYE 45.43
UGP 22.15
MDSO 81.08
IDTI 8.23

From 1M to 10M:
SAM 207.21
NKY 16.08
KWK 1.38
LOCK 12.16
GGAL 6.8
WNC 9.79
BBH 76.97
SAPE 14.42
ENTG 9.18
PGTI 9.1
EGLE 3.67
BSAC 22.79
LAZ 33.49
CAF 21.37
BAK 14.39
TTEK 22.04
EBR 2.14
GA 7.2
MKTG 13.17
TAN 26.55
FBT 60.93
ELP 11.78
MX 19.1
BALT 4.63
CBF 19.92
FREE -0.07
RPXC 14.62
LOGM 28.28
TGH 32.91
LOGI 7.7
CYOU 25.85
EQM 43.15
JRCC 1.71
SB 6.37
BCOR 18.81
BKR 39.21
SBLK 9.21
DIG 55.84
BRP 18.78
BKF 34.85
BEAT 7.44
KOL 18.82
UYM 37.02
SLX 41.9
RAVN 29.04
SSW 20.71
HTH 15.25
NANO 13.86
ENPH 5.62
QLYS 18.7
XRS 11.79
BIK 22.06
PBE 33.13
VLCCF 8.34
TNP 4.26
EEB 32.77
CECE 11.65
TYPE 23.82
IMOS 14.69
IAI 31.03
BDE 9.88
CVCO 47.6
GSM 11.87
PBW 5.36
PRGN 7.09
ESEA 1.24
FXB 151.74
SPIL 5.34
TNK 2.22
PXH 19.36

Sales/shorts:
100 – 1B:
VZ 49.65
GSK 53.16
MTB 120.16

1M – 100M USD:
SNTS 26.71
BIL 46.28
AZO 442.88
QID 21.66
BIOD 5.31
ARNA 7.46
HCBK 10.01
DK 27.47
EEV 25.56
SSNI 23.37
HMSY 26.85

1M to 10M USD:
EUM 29.54
PALL 72.18
PSQ 21.89
FXP 19.32
PPLT 153.26
DUG 63.7
BNO 53.91
SRI 13.7
SMN 48.85
ACPW 3.8

Ideas with stops as of August 5, 2013 $TSLA $NOK $NFLX $FXI $DG

Longs in descending order of trading market value, with suggested stop points.

500M+ USD trading volume market value
TSLA 142.44
NOK 4.55
NFLX 259.25
FXI 34.23
DG 51.93

250M+ USD trading volume market value
HAL 45.54
CIEN 20.36
LVS 53.97
ACT 127.82
KORS 69.26

100M+ USD trading volume market value
NOV 70.99
EOG 147.23
DDD 45.13
MGM 16.59
PXD 164.02
QIHU 68.17
IBB 187.44
Z 81.84
ENDP 39.28
EWY 55.84

Short/sale with suggested stop points
1B+ USD volume
MSFT 34.54

100M+ USD volume
ESV 58.76
FSLR 43.01
KMB 97.67

50M+ USD volume
CAB 70.45
TIP 112.12
SCTY 36.85
IEF 101.58
SHY 84.47
FBHS 41.1

Ideas with stops as of August 26, 2013 $MSFT pop $FB $TSLA $HAL $GLD $NFLX $DOW $SLV $GMCR $ABX $PBR

This is a trading ideas list with suggested stops, presented in declining order of estimated USD market value traded on Friday, August 23, 2013.
Primarily longs, reflecting the market action of rotation, as new leaders from rising/recovering industries emerge. The list of sells/shorts is considerably less.

Longs with suggested stop loss points. Microsoft comes at the head of the list but is really a month high pop in price courtesy of the long awaited departure plans of CEO Ballmer after a decade wherein MSFT went from fallen growth play to run-off mega cap with a dividend. My how things have changed in a decade. Within that hour however, eventually to be former CEO Ballmer earned in excess of 500M in less than hour on his MSFT holdings. Not much reason to lament. Facebook, Tesla remain the current shooting star leaders and new speculative darlings of the moment.

1B+ USD traded:
MSFT 31.57
FB 36.21
TSLA 134.18
HAL 45.09
GLD 127.04

500M+ USD traded:
NFLX 245.54
DOW 35.84

250M+ USD traded:
SLV 21.25
GMCR 73.27
ABX 16.73
PBR 12.96
CHK 23.97
ROST 64.72

100M+ USD traded:
VMW 80.06
LMT 119.62
SLW 23.44
KORS 66.23
AET 60.17
TJX 51.14
LYB 64.66
QCOR 61.66
MGM 16.46
WFT 13.91
AUY 9.96
SU 31.89
GOLD 69.97
EA 25.27

50M+ USD traded:
CTRP 40.72
XME 34.01
AGQ 21.27
WYNN 131.39
HAIN 73.54
NTES 67.6
FTI 50.65
NXPI 32.65
CI 74.03
GGB 6.52
GDXJ 43.24
EWG 26
RGLD 53.77
TSL 7.42
JAZZ 76.87
AEM 27.02
ANR 5.16

25M+ USD traded:
VRSN 46.92
CBI 56.31
IAU 12.86
CNX 29.61
CSTR 53.4
DRYS 1.83
SSYS 89.96
NBR 14.4
AFOP 29.01
CRUS 18.51
SWKS 22.86
RH 62.31
DBC 25.87
ACI 3.8
XEC 72.95
FRC 42.69
TNGO 17.53
AIZ 52.61
GTLS 105.47

10M+ USD traded:
ING 10.88
LGF 32.29
DSX 9.86
KALU 64.91
CNH 45.49
RPTP 11.61
SGOL 129.79
ABB 21.6
DGP 30.46
SID 3.19
BXS 19.07
PHYS 10.99
YGE 3.38
PRLB 61.37
OPEN 65.25
PB 57.73
IRE 10.92
FLTX 37.57
SREV 10.93
PSLV 8.78
DJP 37.13
ENV 24.8
LOCK 11.13
TASR 10.17

5M+ USD traded:
FNGN 48.82
GNK 1.98
UGL 50.41
BBVA 9.53
FEIC 73.02
BIL 45.5
RRGB 61.85
MNI 2.76
BEAT 6.6
CBF 18.38
NGVC 30.64
GOL 3.11
QLYS 17.15
SYT 77.02

1M+ USD traded, a super thin environment:
SIVR 21.8
TESO 14.08
JRCC 1.49
KWK 1.17
LOGI 6.98
ARLP 70.81
TYPE 22.68
GSM 11.52
TTMI 9.43
SB 5.35
GMLP 29.49
USCR 17.18
PSAU 21.26
USV 29.86
BALT 4.04
DEL 58.07
BKR 38.77

Short/Sales with suggested stops:

100M+ traded:
CSCO 25.64
XRT 82.91
GPS 45.63
PETM 75.93
UAL 34.06

10M+ traded
MNKD 7.58
SHY 84.55
SBH 28.92
DNDN 3.81
APO 29.7
NSR 55.6
AFSI 42.03
LAZ 38.7

1M+ traded:
DZZ 6.59
EPL 35.5
KOF 149.89
TUMI 23.79
FIG 8.25
BGFV 20.47
GY 16.99
EEFT 39.53
AHS 16.23
TNH 226.55
USU 25.47

The Dark Knight Rises: About fear, trial and error, risk and success, via a cool Quora post

http://www.quora.com/Movies/What-is-the-most-important-thing-you-have-ever-learned-from-a-movie/answer/Brandon-McLaughlin?srid=utNO&share=1

from graduate student Brandon McLaughlin

This is a pretty recent one but it’s an amazing scene and everyone should see it. Bruce Wayne trying to escape the underground prison in The Dark Knight Rises. No one has ever escaped from this prison before, except for one child years before Bruce Wayne was in this situation. The only way out is to climb up what almost seems like a giant well. At a certain point, there are no more rocks to grab and one must jump along the wall to get to the next point where there is surface to step on/grab. Everyone attempts doing this with a safety rope tied around their waste and fails. Even Bruce Wayne tries many times and fails. It is not until this moment that he is able to escape:

Blind Prisoner: You do not fear death. You think this makes you strong. It makes you weak.
Bruce Wayne: Why?
Blind Prisoner: How can you move faster than possible, fight longer than possible without the most powerful impulse of the spirit: the fear of death.
Bruce Wayne: I do fear death. I fear dying in here, while my city burns, and there’s no one there to save it.
Blind Prisoner: Then make the climb.
Bruce Wayne: How?
Blind Prisoner: As the child did. Without the rope. Then fear will find you again.

In order to accomplish great things one must be freed from the safety nets that hold them back. With the rope, in the back of one’s mind it is known that worse case scenario is missing the ledge and being saved by the rope, only to have failed and given another chance to attempt later. Only when the choice is escape or death will one put forth the effort necessary to escape, no matter how bad you think you want to. It isn’t until great risk is taken that greatness will be achieved.

Notes to myself on record high Corporate Profits from John Hussman’s “Taking Distortion At Face Value” article

From John Mauldin’s recent post, presenting Dr. John Hussman’s musings on corporate profits and the market:

Despite the enormous weight of both accounting identity, historical data, and simple arithmetic, we continue to encounter persistent hostility to the idea that profit margins are the mirror image of extraordinary and unsustainable deficits in the government and household sector. The actual relationship was first detailed by the economist Michal Kalecki in the mid-1900’s. James Montier of GMO gives a nice derivation. The full relationship is:

Profits = Investment – Household Savings – Government Savings – Foreign Savings + Dividends

As I noted over a year ago, dividends exhibit very little volatility over time, and do not exert a material amount of volatility in the above relationship over the course of the economic cycle. It also happens that particularly in U.S. data, the difference between Investment and Foreign Savings (i.e. the inverse of the current account deficit) also fluctuates relatively little, because current account “improvement” is typically associated with deterioration in gross domestic investment, as shown … since the 1940’s.

As a result, the Kalecki equation reduces, for all practical purposes, to a statement that corporate profits move opposite to the sum of household and government saving. [Again, see Two Myths and A Legend.] More than a half-century of data that demonstrates the tightness of this relationship.

The upshot is very simple, the U.S. stock market presently reflects two unstable features. One is that extraordinary monetary policy – specifically quantitative easing – has created an ocean of zero-interest money that someone has to hold at each point in time, and that provokes a speculative reach for yield. The other is that extraordinary fiscal policy, coupled with household savings near record lows, have joined to elevate profit margins more than 70% above their historical norm, as the deficit of one sector has to emerge as the surplus of another. The result is that investors quite erroneously accept the distorted “earnings yield” of stocks (and the associated “forward price/earnings multiple” of the S&P 500) at face value, without any adjustment for elevated profit margins or the historical tendency for such elevations to be eliminated over the course of the business cycle.

Put simply, stocks are not cheap, but are instead strenuously overvalued. The speculative reach for yield, encouraged by the Federal Reserve, has created another bubble – which is not recognized as a bubble only because distorted profit margins create the illusion that stocks are reasonably valued. We presently estimate a prospective 10-year nominal total return for the S&P 500 of less than 3.5% annually. The likelihood of even this return being achieved smoothly, without severe intervening volatility and steep market losses, is roughly zero. This does not imply or ensure immediate market losses, but it doesn’t need to. On any horizon of less than about 6-7 years, we expect that any intervening returns achieved by the S&P 500 will be wiped out, and then some. Speculate if you believe that your exit strategy will dominate that of millions of other speculators, despite market conditions that are already overvalued, overbought, overbullish.

Interesting Price Breakouts as of Mar. 10, 2013, Pt. 2: $AIG … $OPEN … $SBUX etc

Everything is on fire. Everything. Except Gold miners. Have your size and stops in place.

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Interesting Price Breakouts Mar. 10, 2013: Market are on fire Pt.1 $ES_F $ZB_F $DX_F $USDX

Breakouts in the past few sessions have left behind the dippy, zippy action, during which institutions bought in size, leaving us frazzled and some of us chasing trains as they pull out of the station at warp speed.

And despite all the bottoms, tops, insect patterns, formations, and most of all idiot ministerial gaffes and interview blundering and “jawboning”, trends that started at the end of 2012 continue on, steadily.

Charts below of futures charts:

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DOLLAR UP, BONDS ARE OFF, YEN and CABLE continue their declines. So where are the offers being taken?

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