On a downbeat day, some downbeat trends $CINF $DORM $HIBB $HSY $NUS $UBS

On a downbeat day, I wanted to see what price trends were already in the midst of a pity party, perhaps for weeks. With a slow-mo, low frequency system, everything I look at has longer time frames, and despite the averages continuing a slow crawl up, there were bound to be laggards and former winners now “leading” in against the upward tide. Presented in no particular order.

$NUS Suggested stop: 50 to 52

$HIBB Suggested stop: 54

$CINF Suggested stop: 44.5+

$UBS Suggested stop: 16.3+

$HSY Suggested stop: 84 to 85

Precious metals in 60 seconds $FCX $GDX $GDXJ $GG Glimmer of Hope?

Gold might be making a comeback, after being re-buried underground for a while.

Out of all of the tickers presented, FCX is the most “attractive” with new recent highs and elevated volumes in recent weeks. It really has to make new highs for me to think this is no longer stuck in the dirt. Early days but it is worth watching. (*Apologies for those who caught this post earlier. I meant FCX but typed FXI.)

Energy in 60 seconds $APA $HES $KOG $MRO $TSO $XOM

I wanted to present long time frame charts, with weekly bars, no commentary, aside from price and volume. Energy related stocks continue to reach new highs. While trading volumes are not above average in recent weeks, this slow-mo rise is accompanied by a steady rise in price averages. Worth a look.

$ABT $CELG $GILD in 60 seconds; A viable trend resumes for Bio/Pharma?

Here I present 3 life science/pharma tickers with decent price action.

Up close, at least “close” for me, on a 30 day time scale, things look messy, particularly for CELG and a little bit less so for GILD but I wanted to show with longer time frames, you can see things either “smooth” out or look less dicey on the long side for a variety of ideas. Many will trade in the nanoscale world, but for a patient, price following “Slow Frequency” system, with risk management, many could do well and keep a handle on losses.

$EEM and $FXI in 60 seconds. Signs of a re-emerging trend?

Emerging markets, as hinted at by EEM and FXI (China), weekly bars, looks promising. The recent trading volumes in FXI, and the price action, indicate we could be in for some major moves up.

Suggested risk is about $1.5 per share in EEM and $1.8 per share in FXI. It might sound too “wide” a stop for some traders with a time frame but I employ weekly price bars and recent daily trading volume. EEM and FXI’s approximate stop-loss premiums present a manageable “risk/reward” premium I think.

The reason I share trading videos, longer form posts and charts

I wanted to take a moment to explain something about the videos I’ve begun to post, my long form posts and all the charts I’ve posted on this blog.

The objective is two-fold: This blog is a form of note-taking for me, based upon my observations and the systems I use, to develop trade ideas, entries, and risk management related estimated costs per idea. The second objective is to share ideas to provoke thought with anyone generous enough to spend their time reading my blog.

In the Lefevere book, Reminiscences of A Stock Operator, a/k/a the traders’ “bible” and investment classic, one notion that comes to mind is about how people love trading tips. People love ideas as if that is the entirety of the process of trading. In point of fact, ideas are just a beginning. The real work becomes finding out if a particular idea is suitable for an individual’s trading “style”, personality, bankroll and (both stated and unstated) objectives from trading.

Years ago, I began to adopt signal generating systems using rules evolved from the classic “turtletraders” rules which Michael Covel, noted commentator of the Richard Dennis trainees, shared, and which are still available online. But that was just a starting point, as I began to adapt the rules, based upon personal observations and many hours of spreadsheet tinkering. Later on, I studied the workings of William O’Neil proteges, adapting their studies of their trades to my evolving system. Lastly, I was very fortunate to become friends with a more experienced trader who in an act of generosity, took it upon himself to teach me a similar price-aware trading approach, which is a part of how I filter through the noise and find trading ideas but also helped me to refine my risk management rules even further. It’s all mostly automated, and the final component is my discretionary selection of what are risk-equalized ideas (in terms of the risk of loss per trade idea).

What I share on this blog represents a fraction of what my systems, rules and disposition deliver to my eyes. I wanted to find ideas which were familiar or accessible. At the same time I want to share a message that you can focus on price and develop rules to give each “idea” a potential cost of risk, with the goal that you can make more from the wins than from the losses. Yes, there will always be losses.

I believe that a trading idea can be presented quickly. The key number I begin to focus on after the “finding” of an idea is the cost of being wrong. For stock trading, the cost would be derived from the difference between the entry price and the stop loss exit in case a stock stops its up-trend or down-trend. While I do surrender to the temptation to ponder the potential return (potential profit as a multiple of the anticipated cost of a loss), that gets close to “top” and “bottom” calling and other bad habits belonging to the “prediction” variety. I try to avoid as best as I can the idea of cutting short a winning trade still in progress.

The time frames in my approach have been primarily weekly data. When I use daily data, my eye gravitates towards periods which might as well be weekly in nature. Other stats are all derived from price, with a nod towards volume. Chart patterns, beyond the cup and handle which I was exposed to via O’Neill and Investors Business Daily, are generally beyond me. I don’t trust my judgement when it comes to looking at patterns but I can rely upon price (and volume).

Finally, I admit that I still feel the allure of IBD/O’Neill-style earnings narratives and compelling macro-themes, based upon an earlier working life with some great professionals and from the inspiring narrative of some Market Wizard “gurus” but the “story” comes last. Without price, I can’t go ahead with a trade idea, beyond watching. As an outlet for the “macro” side of my mental makeup, I will write long form posts or “retweet” like a madman stuff that I find interesting and it doesn’t have to be actual trades, so much as ideas from social networks like twitter and/or tumblr. Nothing like a good “time suck” of the Interwebs to relieve me of the need to seek “meaning” in price movements. 🙂

There’s more to say, but this is a starting point for more. Thanks for reading.

07/18/2014 Healthy trend? $AET $CI $HCA $UNH $WLP

A broad move up for health related shares $AET $CI $HCA $UNH $WLP

Across the board, our hearts skip a beat at the prospects that it could persist!

07/18/2014 $YPF in (less than) 60 seconds

Is Argentina’s reform story coming together? With President Kirchner’s third term aborted by legislative action, could it be time for these trades to tango once more? Price first and risk management. With weekly charts, we can see progress. Suggested stop loss is $31+

“Dull” Dow stocks, $KO & $MSFT in 60 seconds

Coke and Microsoft have been kicking butt for those with a price-attentive approach. Not all the action has been in growth stocks. In fact, with a trading system based on a weekly price approach, you could have traded these lovely stocks for some time. Recent highs may give traders with a shorter time frame and an inclination to find “tops” & “bottoms” some temptation to trade against a broader up-trend.

$FCX in 60 Seconds, Freeport-McMoran